National Drought Summary -- February 26, 2008
The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.
The Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States: At least 2 inches of rain fell from northern Louisiana into much of Georgia and northern Florida, bringing another round of reductions in the coverage and intensity of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to exceptional drought (D1 to D4). Rainfall was particularly heavy across southern Georgia and northern Florida, where a few locations received in excess of 10 inches. As a result, a gap widened between drought areas of Florida and the remainder of the Southeast. In fact, improvements were fairly widespread across the Southeast, except along the northern fringe of the drought area.
The Great Lakes Region: Little or no snow was reported in abnormally dry (D0) sections of northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, leaving the depiction unchanged.
The Plains: The overall drought picture was virtually unchanged across the northern and central Plains, but deterioration occurred farther south, mainly in Texas, due to windy weather and a heat wave. In particular, coverage of moderate to extreme drought (D1 to D3) increased in parts of southern, central, and western Texas. On February 25, temperatures climbed to 100 degrees F at several places in southern Texas, including locations near Carrizo Springs and Del Rio. At the official observation site in Del Rio, the high of 99 degrees F on the 25th tied its February record, previously attained on February 21, 1996.
In Texas alone, more than a dozen wildfires were in various stages of containment as of February 27. The largest blaze, the 219,000-acre Glass fire southwest of Sterling City, was burning in parts of three counties. Other large incidents included the 29,000-acre Scurry County complex near the town of Snyder, where five homes were destroyed, and the 20,000-acre Silver fire in Coke County, where the community of Robert Lee was evacuated. Just in the last week, nearly 300,000 acres of vegetation were charred across Texas, boosting the year-to-date total to more than 480,000 acres. During all of 2007, just 121,964 acres burned in the Lone Star State. Fires were not just confined to Texas; other blazes in recent days included a 40,000-acre fire near Hobbs, New Mexico, where tower personnel at the Hobbs Airport were evacuated for 4 hours. In northwestern Oklahoma, several thousand acres burned in Woodward County.
Agricultural impacts of dryness and drought across the south-central U.S. included stress on winter wheat. As of February 24, the Texas winter wheat crop was rated 64% very poor to poor, while the state’s range and pastureland was rated 45% very poor to poor. Ironically, dry conditions also promoted early-season fieldwork in Texas; by February 24, planting advanced ahead of the 5-year average and was 1% complete for corn and 2% complete for sorghum.
The West: A series of storms moved into California and generally weakened while moving eastward across the West. Precipitation amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with locally higher totals, were common along and near the California coast and in the Sierra Nevada. Abnormal dryness (D0) was removed from much of the coastal region of central and southern California and the majority of California’s Central Valley. Farther inland, the gradient from abnormal dryness to severe drought (D0 to D2) tightened along and near the California-Nevada border. However, abnormal dryness remained in place across much of the Sierra Nevada due to concerns about expectations for below-average spring and summer runoff in many key watersheds. Nevertheless, the average water content of the Sierra Nevada snow pack climbed to 29 inches (118% of average for the date) by February 27, up from 24 inches (103%) a week earlier, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
Alaska: Again this week, heavy precipitation was confined to south-central and southeastern Alaska, well outside the region of below-average snow packs that define a large area of abnormal dryness (D0).
Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (through March 3), a storm system will cross the nation’s northern tier from February 28 to March 1, producing some snow from the northern Plains into the Northeast. Meanwhile, some light rain will briefly affect the South and East. During the weekend, however, a stronger storm will arrive in the Northwest. By early next week, March 3, there is the potential for some heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms to develop from the southeastern Plains into the Southeast. Some precipitation may also return to the Midwest.
The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for March 4-8 calls for the likelihood of a wet weather pattern in most areas from the Plains to the East Coast. Wet conditions will be most likely in the Southeast. Meanwhile, warm, mostly dry weather can be expected across the West Coast states. Elsewhere, above-normal temperatures will prevail in southern Florida and the Northeast, but cooler-than-normal weather will cover much of the central one-third of the U.S.
Author: Brad Rippey, U.S. Department of Agriculture